The rent-band screen: a unit-economics worksheet to run before you visit a single site

The problem this worksheet solves

Market reports publish rent as a band, not a number. The Q3 2026 report from Avison Young Vietnam, as summarised by Vietstock on 13 October 2026, gives the non-central belt of Ho Chi Minh City at USD 15 to 93 per sqm per month, with 82% occupancy. The central area runs USD 75 to 300 per sqm per month at 93% occupancy. Hanoi central runs USD 50 to 230 at 92%, non-central USD 20 to 80 at 84%. Da Nang averages USD 28 at around 86%.

A band of USD 15 to 93 is a factor of six. Any model built on the midpoint is a model of a unit that does not exist.

Step one: convert the band into two rent lines, not one

Take a realistic unit size and compute monthly rent at the low end and the high end of the band for your target zone. For a 120 sqm unit in the non-central belt at USD 15 and USD 93, monthly rent is USD 1,800 at the bottom and USD 11,160 at the top. Those are two different businesses.

Run every subsequent line twice, once against each rent figure. The purpose is not precision. It is to see which end of the band your model can survive.

Step two: set the occupancy cost ceiling first

Decide the maximum share of revenue you will let rent consume, then derive the revenue you need, rather than deriving rent from the revenue you hope for.

• Rent at the low end divided by your ceiling gives required monthly revenue at the low end.
• Rent at the high end divided by the same ceiling gives required monthly revenue at the high end.

If the high-end requirement exceeds what comparable units in the system actually bill, the high end of the band is outside your model. That is a decision made in a spreadsheet, not in a negotiation under time pressure.

Step three: test the price point against the market, not the brand deck

Revenue is transactions multiplied by average ticket, and average ticket has to sit where customers are. In Vietnam, the first-half 2026 food service report by iPOS.vn and Nestle Professional, cited by Nhan Dan on 9 October 2026, found the share of consumers spending under VND 35,000 per drink fell from 41.64% to 29.44%, while the 36,000 to 70,000 band rose from 48.29% to 61.78%. The same report puts outlets at about 329,200, down 0.1% from end-2025, with revenue of VND 432,700 billion, up 6.55%.

Flat outlet count with rising revenue means the growth came from each unit. So a model priced under the lower threshold is targeting a band that shrank by more than twelve percentage points, and will need more transactions to hit the same revenue line computed in step two.

Step four: check whether your format belongs in that zone at all

Sometimes the answer is a different format rather than a cheaper lease. Vietstock on 12 October 2026, relaying Znews of 11 October 2026 and remarks by a BSA specialist at a forum organised by HVNCLC, reported minimart openings running at about 10 a day against roughly 5 previously, with about 10,000 outlets today, a projection above 30,000 by 2030, growth above 20% a year, and around 70% of new openings at commune level. Delivery times in those areas have fallen to about 2 hours from 24.

When the growth of modern retail is moving to small formats outside expensive zones, the question stops being how to afford a prime rent and becomes whether a smaller format reaches the same customer at a tenth of the occupancy cost.

The worksheet in five lines

• Target zone and its published rent band, with the date of the source.
• Unit size, and monthly rent at both ends of the band.
• Occupancy cost ceiling as a share of revenue.
• Required monthly revenue at both ends, derived from the ceiling.
• Average ticket and the transactions per day needed to reach each revenue figure.

If line five is implausible at the high end of the band, you have a screen result before you walk a single site.

What we do not know

We do not know where inside each band a specific mall or street unit sits, because published bands do not identify individual properties.

We do not know how rents move in Q4 2026, and the Q3 picture already shows Ho Chi Minh City adding no new mall supply, which removes one source of downward pressure.

We do not know the distribution of average ticket by format or by city, only the national shift in spending bands, so a format in one district may face a different mix.

We do not know how many of the roughly 10,000 minimarts are franchised rather than company-owned, nor the per-chain store counts, so the franchised share of that growth is unverified.

This worksheet is a planning method built on published figures. It is not investment advice and does not replace advice from an accountant or a lawyer.