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Working Capital & Runway

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What this tool does

Model the ramp-up: the working capital a unit burns before break-even, and whether your reserve survives it.

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What this calculates

Models the ramp-up rather than the steady state. A new unit opens below its eventual revenue and climbs, and every month below break-even burns cash. This projects that curve, totals the cash consumed before the unit turns cash-positive, and tests whether the reserve you have set aside actually survives it.

What you will need

Opening revenue and ramp. What you expect in month one and how quickly it climbs. Optimism here is expensive: a ramp two months slower than planned can double the cash burned.

Monthly fixed costs. These start in full from day one, and often before opening if rent begins during fit-out. Check when your lease obligation actually starts.

Reserve available. Cash genuinely set aside for the ramp-up, not counted twice against the build-out budget.

How to read the result

The number that matters is the maximum cumulative deficit — the deepest point of the trough, not the total burn. That is the cash you must have available on the worst day. Then run the ramp two months slower and revenue ten per cent lower; if the reserve fails that test, the unit is funded for the plan rather than for reality. Running out of cash three months before break-even destroys a unit that would have worked.

Questions about this tool

How long should I fund for?

Past your projected break-even with a real margin. Ramp-ups slip for ordinary reasons — a delayed opening, a slow first season — and the cost of over-funding is small compared with the cost of running dry.

Does rent really start before I open?

Often yes, from lease commencement rather than from trading. Check your lease, and include any pre-opening rent in the burn — it lands when there is no revenue at all to meet it.

Can I rely on an overdraft instead of a reserve?

It is weaker than cash. Facilities can be reduced exactly when trading is poor, which is when you need them. Treat borrowing capacity as a backup to a reserve, not a substitute for one.

For reference only; not legal, tax, or investment advice. Results depend entirely on the figures you enter — check them against your own quotes and your franchise agreement before acting on them.

What this tool does

Model the ramp-up: the working capital a unit burns before break-even, and whether your reserve survives it.

Other tools for this stage